Ehrlich weighs 2010 gubernatorial bid

Encouraged by the recent Republican victories in New Jersey and Virginia, former Gov. Robert Ehrlich, who presided over massive in-state tuition increases, is weighing a bid in the 2010 gubernatorial race.

Ehrlich is widely considered to be the only Republican with enough statewide name recognition to represent a potential threat to the reelection of Gov. Martin O’Malley, who defeated Ehrlich by more than 6 percentage points in 2006. The only other announced Republican candidate is Larry Hogan, Jr., an Ehrlich cabinet member who said he will drop out if his former boss decides to mount a campaign.

“What New Jersey tells us is no state is immune to tossing out a bad Democratic governor,” state House Minority Leader Anthony J. O’Donnell (R-Calvert) told The Washington Post last Thursday. “It sure does make me feel better. It’s something of a vindication of a gut feeling I’ve had for six to eight months. If New Jersey tells us anything, it’s that nothing’s impossible.”

While Ehrlich, who couldn’t be reached for comment, told other media outlets recent Republican victories were “predictors” and “relevant,” other state politicians didn’t believe the triumphs of Republican Bob McDonnell over R. Creigh Deeds in Virginia and Chris Christie over incumbent governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey can be interpreted as a litmus test for Maryland’s political leanings.

“I don’t think these races apply to us frankly, partly because Maryland is a much more democratic state and partly because Gov. O’Malley is so popular,” said state Sen. Jim Rosapepe (D-Anne Arundel and Prince George’s). “Although I have a lot of respect for former Gov. Corzine, he was unpopular in New Jersey and stood almost no chance of re-election.”

A statewide poll released by Clarus Research Group the day after the elections found O’Malley defeating Ehrlich 47 to 40 percent. But the same poll also found a plurality of Marylanders — 48 percent — would prefer that someone other than O’Malley win.

However, one thing is certain if O’Malley and Ehrlich face off in 2010:  Higher education will be a major focus of both campaigns.

“Higher education was a central issue in the 2006 race, and if there’s a match-up between O’Malley and Ehrlich, it will definitely be a huge issue again,” university lobbyist Ross Stern said.

Ehrlich’s administration pushed through huge cuts to the university system, which forced in-state tuition up 40 percent by the time he left office. O’Malley wrested the governor’s seat from Ehrlich by centering his campaign on education funding and affordability, a move that resonated with voters who tossed out Ehrlich — the only incumbent governor in the nation to be defeated in 2006. When O’Malley began his term, tuition was eighth highest in the nation; as a result of a three-year tuition freeze, it now ranks around 16th.

Rosapepe said he would be worried if he were a university student, parent or employee at the thought of Ehrlich running again, even though he thinks his chances of victory are unlikely. But other Republican candidates aren’t very different from Ehrlich either, he said.

“At the end of the day, I’m sure there will be a Republican candidate, but so far they’re all in the same mold as Ehrlich — that is, folks who served in his administration which pushed through the big budget cuts to the university,” he said. “From the university’s point of view, it’s very straightforward — O’Malley is a big supporter of higher education, and they’ll be strongly backing his candidacy.”

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